A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
