A mere two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
